​Topics on Trade and Chinese Economy


Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies
MINT226 - Spring 2022 - Course- 6 ECTS

Wednesday 10:15-12:00

Lecturer: Yuan Zi 
Office hours: Thursday 10:00-12:00 (class weeks)

 
Course Description 
China's domestic economic reforms and growing integration into the global economy have raised countless questions about its economic growth and development in the past, present and more importantly its impact on other economies in the future. This course will provide students with the knowledge and analytical skills to address the related questions, through a series of lectures covering various aspect of the Chinese economy and its reforms since the late 1970s. The course will have a special focus on the role of international trade in China's structural transformation, covering topics from China's WTO accession to its recent trade war with the United State.  

Main textbooks
Additional textbooks
  • Justin Yifu Lin, Fang Cai, and Zhou Li. 2003. The China Miracle: Development Strategy and Economic Reform. Chinese University Press. (LCL)
  • Wu, Jinglian. 2005. Understanding and Interpreting Chinese Economic Reform. Texere.
 
Pre-requisites of the course
The course assumes basic knowledge of economics and statsictis.
​
Grading
The grade will be based on class participation (10% of the final grade), a paper presentation (40% of the final grade) and an essay (50% of final grade).
  • In class presentation: The presentation should be based on one of the paper of the reading list (see below). They should be organized as follows: presentation of the paper, then discussion of the paper, i.e. description of its main features, contributions to the literature, strengths and weakness.
  • Essay: The essay should be related one of the topics that we covered in class, and with a clear research question.
    • Examples: you can either wirte a small analytical paper with data like this, or a review & descrptive paper like this, or write as an wikipedia page like this.  
    • Follow academic practices and cite properly. Plagiarism leads to a zero grade.
    • The essay should be written in word (with EB Gramond font, 12pt, single space) or in latex.
 
Outline (preliminary)
  • Week 1 Introduction
  • Weeks 2 China's growth+ paper presentation
  • Weeks 3 Industrial policy before 1978 and rural reforms + paper presentation
  • Weeks 4 Reforms of firms  + paper presentation
  • Weeks 5-8 Trade reforms and trade policy + paper presentation
  • Weeks 9-14 Selected topics on Chinese economy + paper presentation
 
Lectures

Chapter 1.  Introduction
Slides
Reading:  Naughton, Chapter 1
Additional: Fogel, Robert. 2007. “Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts and Speculations,” NBER Working Paper, 13184.
Peter Nolan, “Introduction,” in Peter Nolan, Is China Buying the World (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2012), pp. 1-10.
Martin Jacques, “The Changing of the Guard,” in Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World (London: Allan Lane, 2009), pp. 1-22.
 
Chapter 2. China's growth
Slides
Reading: LCL, Chapter 4 & 6
Papers for presentation:
  • Borensztein, Eduardo, and Jonathan D. Ostry. "Accounting for China's growth performance." The American Economic Review 86.2 (1996): 224-228.
  • Zhu, Xiaodong. "Understanding China's growth: Past, present, and future." Journal of Economic Perspectives 26.4 (2012): 103-24.
  • Chow, Gregory C., and Kui-Wai Li. "China’s economic growth: 1952–2010." Economic Development and Cultural Change 51.1 (2002): 247-256.
 
Chapter 3. Industrial and rural policy before 1978
Slides
Reading: Naughton, Chapter 3; LCL, Chapter 2 & 3
Additional:  Lin, Justin Yifu. Demystifying the Chinese economy. Cambridge University Press, 2011.
Papers for presentation:
  • Lin, Justin Yifu. 1990. Collectivization and China's agricultural crisis in 1959-1961. Journal of Political Economy, 98(6), pp.1228-1252.
  • Xu, Chenggang., 2011. The fundamental institutions of China's reforms and development. Journal of economic literature, 49(4), pp.1076-1151.

Chapter 4. Agriculture reforms
Slides
Reading: Naughton, Chapter 10
Papers for presentation:
  • Lin, Justin Yifu. 1992. Rural reforms and agricultural growth in China. The American Economic Review, 34-51.
  • Li, Yuxuan, Weifeng Zhang, Lin Ma, Liang Wu, Jianbo Shen, William J. Davies, Oene Oenema, Fusuo Zhang, and Zhengxia Dou. 2014. An analysis of China’s grain production: looking back and looking forward. Food and Energy Security 3, no.1: 19-32.

Chapter 5. Reforms of firms
Slides
Reading: Naughton, Chapter 13
Additional:  Vogel, Ezra F., 2011, “Deng’s Finale: The Southern Journey, 1992” in Vogel, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, Harvard University Press, pp. 664-690
Papers for presentation:
  • Qian, Yingyi. et al. 1999. “From Federalism, Chinese Style, to Privatization, Chinese Style,” Economics of Transition, 7(1): 103-131.
  • Lin, Justin Yifu, Fang Cai, and Zhou Li. "Competition, policy burdens, and state-owned enterprise reform." The American Economic Review 88.2 (1998): 422-427.
  • Che, Jiahua, and Yingyi Qian. "Insecure property rights and government ownership of firms." The quarterly journal of economics 113.2 (1998): 467-496.
  • Wen, Yi. "The Making of an Economic Superpower―Unlocking China's Secret of Rapid Industrialization." FRB St. Louis Working Paper 2015-6 (2015).
 
Chapter 6. Trade reforms and trade policy
Reading: Naughton, Chapter 16, 17
Additional: Vogel, Ezra F., 2011, “Experiments in Guangdong and Fujian, 1979-1984” in Vogel, Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, Harvard University Press, pp. 394-422.
Michael Spence, “Why China grows So Fast?,” Wall Street Journal, Jan. 23, 2007.
Papers for presentation:

    Trade facts
    Slides
    Papers for presentation:
  • Rodrik, Dani. "Symposium on globalization in perspective: an introduction." Journal of Economic Perspectives 12.4 (1998): 3-8.
  • McMillan, Margaret S., and Dani Rodrik. Globalization, structural change and productivity growth. No. w17143. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2011.
  • Rodrik, Dani. "Goodbye Washington consensus, hello Washington confusion? A review of the World Bank's economic growth in the 1990s: learning from a decade of reform." Journal of Economic literature 44.4 (2006): 973-987.
    Trade reforms I
    Slides
    Papers for presentation:
  • Feenstra, R. and Wei, S.J. 2009 “Introduction to ‘China’s Growing Role in World Trade’,” NBER Working Papers, 14716.
  • Bransetter, L. and Lardy, N. 2006. “China’s Embrace of Globalization,” NBER Working Paper, 1237.

    Trade reforms II
    Slides
    Papers for presentation:
  • Long, G., 2005. China’s policies on FDI: Review and evaluation. Does foreign direct investment promote development, pp.315-336.
  • Yin, X., 2004. China's Trade Reform and Economic Development. China Report, 40(4), pp.407-417.

    Trade wars
    Slides
    Papers for presentation:
  • Amiti, M, S J Redding, and D Weinstein (2019), “The impact of the 2018 trade war on U.S. price and welfare”, Journal of Economic Perspectives 33(4): 187-210.
  • Cavallo, A, G Gopinath, B Neiman, and J Tang (2021), “Tariff pass-through at the border and at the store: Evidence from US trade policy”, American Economic Review: Insights 3(1): 19-34.
  • Amiti, M, S H Kong, and D Weinstein (2020), “The effect of the U.S.-China trade war on U.S. investment”, NBER Working Paper No. 27114.
 
Chapter 7. Selected topics on Chinese economy 
Reading: Naughton, Chapter 7, 8, 9

    Demography
    Slides
    Papers for presentation:
  • Lee, James, and Wang Feng. "Malthusian models and Chinese realities: The Chinese demographic system 1700–2000." Population and Development Review 25.1 (1999): 33-65.
  • Wei, Zheng, and Rui Hao. "Demographic structure and economic growth: Evidence from China." Journal of Comparative Economics 38.4 (2010): 472-491.
  • Yi Chen, Hanming Fang. 2021. The long-term consequences of China's “Later, Longer, Fewer” campaign in old age. Journal of Development Economics 151, 102664.
  • McElroy, Marjorie, and Dennis Tao Yang. 2000. “Carrots and Sticks: Fertility Effects of China’s Population Policies.” American Economic Review 90(2): 389–92.

    One Child Policy
    Slides
    Papers for presentation:
  • Ahn, Namkee. 1994. “Effects of the One-Child Policy on Second and Third Births in Hebei, Shaanxi and Shanghai.” Journal of Population Economics 7(1): 63–78.
  • Zhang, Junsen. "The evolution of China's one-child policy and its effects on family outcomes." Journal of Economic Perspectives 31.1 (2017): 141-60.
  • Li, Hongbin, and Junsen Zhang. 2007. “Do High Birth Rates Hamper Economic Growth?” Review of Economics and Statistics 89(1): 110–17.
  • Rosenzweig, Mark R., and Junsen Zhang. 2009. “Do Population Control Policies Induce More Human Capital Investment? Twins, Birth Weight and China’s ‘One-Child’ Policy.” Review of Economic Studies 76(3): 1149–74. Scharping, Thomas. 2
 
    Gender
    Slides
    Papers for presentation:
  • Ebenstein, Avraham. "The “missing girls” of China and the unintended consequences of the one child policy." Journal of Human resources 45.1 (2010): 87-115.
  • Rufei Guo, Junsen Zhang. 2020. The Effects of Children's Gender Composition on Filial Piety and Old-Age Support*. The Economic Journal 130:632, 2497-2525.
  • Marc Klemp, Jacob Weisdorf. 2019. Fecundity, Fertility and The Formation of Human Capital. The Economic Journal 129:618, 925-960
  • Goodkind, Daniel. 2011. “Child Underreporting, Fertility, and Sex Ratio Imbalance in China.” Demography 48(1): 291–316.
 
    Education
    Slides
    Papers for presentation:
  • Li, Hongbin, et al. "The end of cheap Chinese labor." Journal of Economic Perspectives 26.4 (2012): 57-74.
  • Lixu, Li. "China’s higher education reform 1998–2003: A summary." Asia Pacific education review 5.1 (2004): 14-22.
  • Che, Yi, and Lei Zhang. "Human capital, technology adoption and firm performance: Impacts of China's higher education expansion in the late 1990s." The Economic Journal 128.614 (2018): 2282-2320.